Grades in the School Market: Socioeconomic Background, Provider Structure, and Final Grades in Compulsory School in Sweden, 1998–2022

Abstract in English

his dissertation examines associations between socioeconomic background, provider structure, local school-market context, and final merit ratings in compulsory school in Sweden, 1998–2022. Merit ratings are treated as educational outcomes and institutional signals used for selection into upper-secondary education in a system shaped by school choice, independent-school expansion, and criterion-referenced grading.

Using Swedish register data complemented by longitudinal cohort data, the studies combine descriptive and correlational analyses, fixed-effects regression, observed–predicted models, and propensity score matching. The studies examine changes over time, local school markets and provider structures, and variation across school subjects.

First, between 1998 and 2020, correlations of merit ratings with parental education and municipal median income strengthened over time and varied across local school-market contexts. The parental-education correlation was consistently strongest in municipalities with larger independent-school sectors, with a similar overall pattern for municipal income. Second, between 2014 and 2022, for-profit independent schools generally had observed merit ratings that lay further above model-predicted levels than municipal schools, after adjustment for student composition and local context. In most municipalities, the for-profit–municipal gap was positive and positively correlated with the local share of students in for-profit independent schools. Larger gaps were also associated with larger merit-rating advantages for students from socioeconomically advantaged households. Third, subject-level analyses combined longitudinal patterns from 1998–2017 with later comparisons under the curriculum and grading system introduced in 2011. English and Technology stood out for grade growth, socioeconomic differentiation, school-market differences, and observed–predicted subject-grade discrepancies. Practical-aesthetic subjects also showed strong grade growth and widening socioeconomic differences. Final grades and national test scores in Swedish, English, and Mathematics were positively related in both school types in the matched 2014 cohort, with broadly similar slopes. Between 2014 and 2022, non-profit independent schools showed larger positive subject-grade discrepancies than for-profit independent schools in all six examined subjects, although for-profit provider groups varied substantially.

The dissertation concludes that final grades in compulsory school should be understood as stratified institutional signals. They remain linked to demonstrated performance, but their distribution, comparability, and selection value also vary with social background, local school-market structure, provider organization, and differences between school subjects. These findings have implications for grade comparability, educational equity, and the governance of grading in a marketized school system.